Publisher's Synopsis
ASEAN is in danger of becoming marginalized as East Asian security becomes increasingly shaped by such volatile flashpoints as a nuclear North Korea and a South China Sea increasingly dominated by quarrels over sovereignty and maritime security. Accordingly, the notion of “ASEAN centrality” is now being seriously challenged and is unlikely to prevail against the growing bipolar security environment shaped by China and the United States.
ASEAN and other Asia-Pacific states could gravitate toward one of five alternative order-building scenarios: (i) A Sino-American condominium that defines and accepts each other's geopolitical sphere of influence
However, none of these five scenarios is likely to predominate in a literal sense. Instead, the “realist” explanation for understanding security in the region is the most accurate forecast for understanding an East Asian security environment that is becoming increasingly disorderly. ASEAN can still play a constructive — if not central — role in shaping East Asia's strategic environment by working with China and the United States to strengthen confidence building in regional security politics and to encourage their respect for strategic constraint.
