Assessing the Threat

Since at least the early 1950s, the entire Asia-Pacific region has struggled with the complicated and complex relationship between China and Taiwan - today the Taiwan question is considered a potential flashpoint for a much larger international conflict. Bringing together experts from the United States and Taiwan, "Assessing the Threat" provides a comprehensive look at the dangers of military escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the latest advances in capabilities of the People's Liberation Army, and China's security relationship with the United States and the Asia-Pacific.There is increasing concern that Beijing is steadily shifting the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait in its favor. Recent advances in Chinese air and naval power, along with changes in PLA doctrine, have the potential to weaken deterrence and destabilize the cross-strait military balance. At this critical juncture, there is not question that this issue requires sustained, detailed analysis and that many measures can and should be taken to reduce the threat of conflict between China, Taiwan, and the United States." Assessing The Threat" offers such analysis as well as concrete suggestions and crisis management practices for government and military leaders in Washington, D.C., Beijing, and Taipei. Contributors to this book include Kenneth W. Allen (CNA Corporation), Dean Cheng (CNA Corporation), Roger Cliff (RAND Corporation), Bernard D. Cole (National War College), Lonnie D. Henley (Office of the Director of National Intelligence), Roy D. Kamphausen (National Security Affairs), Justin Liang (National Bureau of Asian Research), Alex Liebman (Harvard University), Oriana Skylar Mastro (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Evan S. Medeiros (RAND Corporation), James Mulvenon (DGI's Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis), Brad Roberts (Institute for Defense Analyses), Alan D. Romberg (Henry L. Stimson Center), Michael D. Swaine (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), and Andrew N. D.Yang (Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies).

ISBN 0870032380   Pages 413 ISBN13 9780870032387 (What's this?)   Volumes 001 Publisher Brookings Institution   Weight (grammes) 33 Imprint Carnegie Endowment for International Peace   Published in Washington DC Format Paperback   Series title Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publication date 06 Jul 2007   Height (mm) 229 Library of Congress UA835   Width (mm) 152 DEWEY 355.033051249   Spine width (mm) 28 DEWEY edition DC22   Academic level Postgraduate

Sect. 1		Introduction and Regional Context
1		Introduction by Michael D. Swaine and Oriana Skylar Mastro		3
2		China's Asia Policy: Strategy and Tactics by Alex Liebman		25
Sect. 2		People's Liberation Army (PLA) Doctrine and Capabilities
3		The PLA and Joint Operations: Moving from Theory Toward Practice by Dean Cheng		55
4		Evolving Chinese Concepts of War Control and Escalation Management by Lonnie D. Henley		85
5		PLA Power Projection: Current Realities and Emerging Trends by Roy D. Kamphausen and Justin Liang		111
Sect. 3		Threats, Deterrence, and Escalation Control in a Taiwan Contingency
6		Air Force Deterrence and Escalation Calculations for a Taiwan Strait Conflict: China, Taiwan, and the United States by Kenneth W. Allen		153
7		The Military Instrument of Statecraft at Sea: Naval Options in an Escalatory Scenario Involving Taiwan: 2007-2016 by Bernard D. Cole		185
8		The Nuclear Dimension: How Likely? How Stable? by Brad Roberts		213
9		PRC Information Operations: Myths, Trends, and New Opportunities by James Mulvenon		243
10		Taiwan's Defense Preparation Against the Chinese Military Threat by Andrew N. D. Yang		265
11		The Implications of Chinese Military Modernization for U.S. Force Posture in a Taiwan Conflict by Roger Cliff		285
Sect. 4		Conclusions
12		Future East Asian Security Architecture: Implications for the PLA by Alan D. Romberg		311
13		Assessing the Threat by Michael D. Swaine and Oriana Skylar Mastro		337
		Bibliography		367
		Index		387
		Contributors		409
		Carnegie Endowment for International Peace		415

"Thorough, stimulating and often provocative, the chapters in this volume provide a unique assessment of the complexities surrounding Taiwan's security. They examine the logic driving China's security policy and emerging military capabilities, strategy and doctrine, Taiwan's evolving defense capabilities and posture, the implications for U.S. military deployments in the west Pacific, issues of escalation control should war break out, and the potential future patterns of East Asia's security environment. These chapters coalesce to form the most important book yet published on this critical security problem." - Paul Godwin, National War College (ret.)

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