Complexity Hints for Economic Policy

This volume extends the complexity approach to economics. This complexity approach is not a completely new way of doing economics, and that it is a replacement for existing economics, but rather the integration of some new analytic and computational techniques into economists' bag of tools. It provides some alternative pattern generators, which can supplement existing approaches by providing an alternative way of finding patterns than be obtained by the traditional scientific approach. On this new kind of policy hints can be obtained. The reason why the complexity approach is taking hold now in economics is because the computing technology has advanced. This advance allows consideration of analytical systems that could not previously be considered by economists. Consideration of these systems suggested that the results of the 'control-based' models might not extend easily to more complicated systems, and that we now have a method - piggybacking computer assisted analysis onto analytic methods - to start generating patterns that might provide a supplement to the standard approach. It is that approach that we consider the complexity approach. The papers in this volume develop these ideas. In terms of policy the papers suggest that economists should become a bit less certain in their policy conclusions, and that they expand their bag of tools supplementing their standard model with some additional models including: agent based models, in which one does not use analytics to develop the pattern, but instead one uses computational power to deal with specification of models that are far beyond analytic solution; and non-linear dynamic stochastic models many of which are beyond analytic solution, but whose nature can be discovered by a combination of analytics and computer simulations. The volume is divided into four sections: general issues, modeling issues, applications, and policy issues. Each struggles with complicated ideas related to our general theme, and a number of them try out new techniques.

ISBN 8847005337   Pages 333 ISBN13 9788847005334 (What's this?)   Volumes 1 Publisher Springer Verlag   Weight (grammes) 728 Imprint Springer Verlag   Published in Milan Format Hardback   Series title New Economic Windows Publication date 19 Feb 2007   Height (mm) 235 Library of Congress HB   Width (mm) 155 DEWEY 330.1   Academic level Professional / Scholarly DEWEY edition DC22

		Rationality, learning and complexity : from the Homo economicus to the Homo sapiens by A. Vercelli		3
		The confused state of complexity economics : an ontological explanation by E. Perona		33
		The complex problem of modeling economic complexity by R. H. Day		57
		Visual recurrence analysis : application to economic time series by M. Faggini		69
		Complexity of out-of-equilibrium play in tax evasion game by V. Lipatov		93
		A new stochastic framework for macroeconomics : some illustrative examples by M. Aoki		121
		Probability of traffic violations and risk of crime - a model of economic agent behavior by J. Mimkes		145
		Markov nets and the NetLab platform : application to continuous double auction by L. Muchnik and S. Solomon		157
		Synchronization in coupled and free chaotic systems by F. T. Arecchi and R. Meucci and E. Allaria and S. Boccaletti		181
		Explaining social and economic phenomena by models with low or zero cognition agents by P. Ormerod and M. Trabatti and K. Glass and R. Colbaugh		201
		Information and cooperation in a simulated labor market : a computational model for the evolution of workers and firms by S. A. Delre and D. Parisi		211
		Income inequality, corruption, and the non-observed economy : a global perspective by E. Ahmed and J. B. Rosser, Jr. and M. V. Rosser		233
		Forecasting inflation with forecast combinations : using neural networks in policy by P. McNelis and P. McAdam		233
		The impossibility of an effective theory of policy in a complex economy by K. Vela Velupillai		273
		Implications of scaling laws for policy-makers by M. Gallegati and A. Kirman and A. Palestrini		291
		Robust control and monetary policy delegation by G. Diana and M. Sidiropoulos		303

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