The Black Swan

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. And why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.

ISBN 0713999950   Pages 400 ISBN13 9780713999952 (What's this?)   Weight (grammes) 784 Publisher Penguin Books Ltd   Published in London Imprint Allen Lane   Height (mm) 241 Format Hardback   Width (mm) 160 Publication date 03 May 2007   Spine width (mm) 36 DEWEY 123.3   Academic level General DEWEY edition DC22

 Be the first to write a customer review