Weighing the Odds

Statistics do not lie, nor is probability paradoxical. You just have to have the right intuition. In this lively look at both subjects, David Williams convinces mathematics students of the intrinsic interest of Statistics and Probability, and Statistics students that the language of mathematics can bring real insight and clarity to their subject. He helps students build the intuition needed, in a presentation enriched with examples drawn from all manner of applications, e.g., genetics, filtering, the Black-Scholes option-pricing formula, quantum probability and computing, and classical and modern statistical models. Statistics chapters present both the Frequentist and Bayesian approaches, emphasising Confidence Intervals rather than Hypothesis Test, and include Gibbs-sampling techniques for the practical implementation of Bayesian methods. A central chapter gives the theory of Linear Regression and ANOVA, and explains how MCMC methods allow greater flexibility in modelling. C or WinBUGS code is provided for computational examples and simulations. Many exercises are included; hints or solutions are often provided.

ISBN 052100618X   DEWEY edition DC21 ISBN13 9780521006187 (What's this?)   Pages 568 Publisher Cambridge University Press   Volumes 1 Imprint Cambridge University Press   Weight (grammes) 890 Format Paperback   Published in Cambridge Publication date 02 Aug 2001   Height (mm) 247 Non-book description xvii, 547 p. :   Width (mm) 174 Library of Congress QA273 .W626 2001   Spine width (mm) 29 DEWEY 519.2   Academic level Tertiary education, Professional / Scholarly

		Preface
1		Introduction		1
		Conditioning: an intuitive first look		1
		Sharpening our intuition		18
		Probability as Pure Maths		23
		Probability as Applied Maths		25
		First remarks on Statistics		26
		Use of Computers		31
2		Events and Probabilities		35
		Possible outcome [omega], actual outcome [omega] [superscript act.], and Events		36
		Probabilities		39
		Probability and Measure		42
3		Random Variables, Means and Variances		47
		Random Variables		47
		DFs, pmfs and pdfs		50
		Means in the case when [Omega] is finite		56
		Means in general		59
		Variances and Covariances		65
4		Conditioning and Independence		73
		Conditional probabilities		73
		Independence		96
		Laws of large numbers		103
		Random Walks: a first look		116
		A simple 'strong Markov principle'		127
		Simulation of IID sequences		130
5		Generating Functions; and the Central Limit Theorem		141
		General comments on the use of Generating Functions (GFs)		142
		Probability generating functions (pgfs)		143
		Moment Generating Functions (MGFs)		146
		More...

'David Williams is a very distinguished mathematician with an enthusiasm for the subject which lights up the book. The book should be read, and the contents pondered on, by everyone who teaches 'second courses' on probability or statistics in a mathematics degree; any good student on such courses would surely be excited by the book.' LTSN Newsletter 'In the Preface the author warns that the book has many unusual features: this is why the book is so interesting. The book is a rich and enjoyable source of ideas, motivations and examples, which can be used by teachers of probability and statistics.' EMS 'David Williams, an author well known in the probabilists' community, has written several books which have had an important influence from the moment they were published. In summary, while progressing through the book, the reader evolves from elementary questions of heads and tails toward a global vision of probability and statistics, with the author vowing to reconcile these two domains, which have separated, then divorced. It is a goldmine of information in both domains. Bravo, David, for this new tour de force! Many readers will be looking forward to your next volume, but this should not distract you from l'art d'etre grand-pere, especially in the bicentennial year of Victor Hugo.' The Mathematical Intelligencer 'I think this is a must-read book for all who will eventually work and teach in probability or statistics because it affords an enjoyable, accessible, and important perspective about their interrelationships.' Computing in Science & Engineering '... the book?s unusual approach and entertaining style results in an introduction to statistics which is unusually accessible to an applied mathematics audience ... a very readable book, from which I learned a great deal and into which I have been continuously dipping since I finished it. I would recommend it to anyone, from final year undergraduate, to an established researcher in nonlinear science. They might be surprised how interesting statistics can be, and perhaps respond more positively next time they are asked to fit data to a model.' Nonlinear Science News

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